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Pré-Publication, Document De Travail (Working Paper) Année : 2023

Dynamic (Mis)allocation of Investments in Solar Energy

Nicolas Hatem
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Résumé

Because they differ in terms of technology, size and location, solar photovoltaic installations exhibit very heterogeneous levelized costs of producing electricity. Therefore, the present value cost of meeting a given trajectory of annual solar energy production depends on which projects are commissioned when: the observed sequence of investment decisions need not be cost-efficient. We propose a methodology to assess dynamic misallocation by comparing the present value cost of realized investments to a counterfactual optimal sequence of investments. Applying our methodology to France between 2005 and 2021, we find that the observed trajectory of annual solar production could have been obtained at a present value cost almost 30% lower than its realized value. Our optimized counterfactual suggests that investments in residential solar should have on average been postponed by 7 years, while investments in medium and large-scale installations should have occurred 2 to 4 years earlier.
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Dates et versions

hal-04320497 , version 1 (04-12-2023)

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-04320497 , version 1

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Nicolas Astier, Nicolas Hatem. Dynamic (Mis)allocation of Investments in Solar Energy. 2023. ⟨hal-04320497⟩
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